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War in two years?

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  • War in two years?

    A newly published article, one of many which you can find around the various news media on this topic:

    On the second page you will find this:

    "China's rulers have adopted what is known as the "two-island chain" strategy of extending control over large areas of the Pacific, covering inner and outer chains of islands stretching from Japan to Indonesia. [snip]
    The official said China's buildup goes beyond what would be needed to fight a war against Taiwan."

    Hmmm, wonder what the demand for English teachers will be then....

    You will make up your own minds, of course, about what to believe about all of this... but it might be worthy of discussion. Sure, it is not as interesting as getting an air conditioning, but still, it might be important.


  • #2
    I don't think China will be starting a war for a while. One it will destroy their economy if countries like Japan and the US stop trading with them, and secondly other countries may cut off supplies of oil and other resources, making things even worse. Can't see it.


    • #3
      Not within 2 years

      If China decides to ignore good economic and diplomatic sense and forcefully take Taiwan one of these days, risking sanctions, loss of investment and all-out war with the US when it does so, surely they'll wait until after they've hosted the 2008 Olympics. War's at least 3 years away...


      • #4
        Ha ha ha!

        The article starts out by complaining that China's military is becoming stronger faster than the USexpected and then proceeds to: "We may be seeing in China the first true fascist society on the model of Nazi Germany," a senior defense official said.

        THe basic argument is that China is a denger to world peace if it has a strong military. Because if it has a strong military it could become a threat to world peace. so the US will have no option but to attack China in the interests of maintaining world peace. As we know, every country that builds up a strong military and doesn't recognise US hegemony must, by definition, be Fascist.


        (unfortunately the writer seems to have failed to have taken into account the US army seeming incapability of taking on the 'insurgents' of one medium-sized middle-eastern capital city so god alone knows how much of a ____-up they would make taking on half of asia..)


        • #5
          While I that article to me is just US right wing scare-mongering and I doubt China would seriously consider war (at least on a big scale) it is important to remember that no-one in 1935 thought Japan would be stupid enough to attack the US or UK. But they did.


          • #6
            Well... I think the situation will be fine for the time being. It is in China's best interest to keep peace, at least in the short term and probably in the medium term as well. As Aha yes says, China will try to maintain their composure until the Olympics. Even afterward, it may be better to keep the situation stable around it.

            Actually, another factor at play is Taiwan's internal politics. I think the opposition parties are getting cozier with China now, and if KMT succeeds in capturing the Taiwanese govt again - and it may happen,- then the rhetoric for Taiwanese independence will abate and the cross-strait relationship may improve.

            In any case, I think the status quo, or the political facade that exists between China and Taiwan may be rather convenient for many politicians on both sides (CP officials in China and KMT politicians in Taiwan), so they may make some effort at keeping it going...


            • #7
              Interesting, the article in the Washington Times (which is more the right-wing newspaper in Washington, compared to the Post). There was this article in the Yomiuri:


              >>The United States, citing a possible surprise assault on Taiwan by China's special forces as a realistic scenario, has told Japan it will be difficult to reduce or relocate to the Japanese mainland any of its marine corps combat units stationed in Okinawa, government sources said Wednesday.<<

              I don't doubt that the present national socialist regime in Beijing would like to extend its influence in the Pacific. But I think they'll want to get Taiwan "back" first. Taiwan will be no pushover and really can't see the US tolerating a Chinese invasion.


              • #8
                I think its safe to assume that China needs Hong Kong and Taiwan investment, not to mention brain power to keep their economic growth on track.
                Invading certainly won't achieve that. One need only take a look at the immigration numbers in British Columbia after the HK takeover to see its effect.
                I reckon the Chinese are free to make a claim on whatever island they wish, but they are likely to have a long hard fight on their hands as the japanese were probably there first and at present Tokyo has deeper pockets. Not to mention the koreans, Manila and god knows who else.


                • #9
                  That article is nothing but Bush type warmongering. They should be more concerned about North Korea than China.

                  "(unfortunately the writer seems to have failed to have taken into account the US army seeming incapability of taking on the 'insurgents' of one medium-sized middle-eastern capital city so god alone knows how much of a ____-up they would make taking on half of asia..)"

                  fighting "insurgents" or "guerillas" is not the same as taking on an army head on. I hate to admit it but that was a problem we had in Viet-nam as well. it is not as easy as it might look. However, going head to head, the US Armed force could probably whip anyone in this world. This is something that the "insurgents" have realized, have you noticed they are basically killing their own people, much more than American personnel.


                  • #10
                    Follow-up: more about war....

                    It's always interesting to see the kind of replies one gets when posting a new topic....

                    Just a few tidbits to clear up what seems to be some misconceptions:
                    1. The article writer (D.G.) is a well known writer for the W.T., and is not the creator of the China analysis spoken of - he was reporting on it. However, it is also true that he does his own research so his articles sometimes include information he has gathered on his own.
                    2. There are many, many discussions and articles about China and their possible future, all over the web and in print. I picked this one because it seemed about right for this forum (i.e., not too long and technical, and not too short and glib.)

                    I guess in the long run, for those of us in Japan, is how Japan (and its economy) will be able to endure the events of the future (whatever they may be.) What I think many people here are missing, being young and not having lived much longer than a couple of decades, is that wars are a normal state of human affairs, they happen all the time, all around the world.

                    The current issues in Okinawa, Yokohama, Kanagawa etc about US bases just brings to the forefront how much Japan (and other countries in East Asia) have been dependent upon being US protectorates (in some fashion.) With the rise of Chinese military capability (beyond what an amphibious assault on Taiwan would require) it is inevitable that someone (other than Taiwan) someday will also have to deal militarily with China.

                    For the record, I do not expect a war with China anytime within the next couple of years, but eventually China, due to internal strife (that needs to be stifled by a renewed military state), unmet energy (oil) demand, unmet water demand.... will move out of its current borders.

                    I just wonder what the Japanese will do at that time.


                    P.S. I give it about 7 years to come to a head, when China will move out against US forces in east asia, should any still remain here...
                    Last edited by freetoken; 2005-07-03, 12:39 AM. Reason: misc