Earthquake information that can save lifes: The myanmar-tohoku connection

[Javier Ropero]

IMPORTANT INFORMATION THAT CAN SAVE LIVES!!
All recent major earthquakes in the Tohoku region of Japan (the tsunami region) are preceded by a big earthquake (>5 Richter) in Myanmar country several hours before.
Tohoku earthquakes that occurred on 5 February, 11 March, 25 March, 22 June, 10 July of 2011 were all preceded by an earthquake in Myanmar country.
14-3-2010 was also preceded by a big earthquake in Myanmar.
This year the 1-1-2012 earthquake in Tokyo was preceded by a big earthquake in Myanmar too.
This seems strange but there is a logical explanation.
Therefore, be prepared, and CONFER MYANMAR EARTHQUAKES IN NEXT DAYS because the greatest Tohoku earthquakes on 2010 and 2011 occurred around March the 12th.
You can look for earthquake information in: http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/recenteqsww/

[Effected After]

I see beentheredonethat has decided to try a new username.

[BackDoor_Man]

IMPORTANT INFORMATION THAT CAN SAVE LIVES!!
All recent major earthquakes in the Tohoku region of Japan (the tsunami region) are preceded by a big earthquake (>5 Richter) in Myanmar country several hours before.
Tohoku earthquakes that occurred on 5 February, 11 March, 25 March, 22 June, 10 July of 2011 were all preceded by an earthquake in Myanmar country.
14-3-2010 was also preceded by a big earthquake in Myanmar.
This year the 1-1-2012 earthquake in Tokyo was preceded by a big earthquake in Myanmar too.
This seems strange but there is a logical explanation.
Therefore, be prepared, and CONFER MYANMAR EARTHQUAKES IN NEXT DAYS because the greatest Tohoku earthquakes on 2010 and 2011 occurred around March the 12th.
You can look for earthquake information in: http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/recenteqsww/

Looking on the map in your link, there is no information of any earthquakes in Myanmar! So kind of hard to verify your claims.

[YokohamaTommy]

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

[Deathblob]

Looking on the map in your link, there is no information of any earthquakes in Myanmar! So kind of hard to verify your claims.

I think he's talking about the other Myanmar -- you know, that other one, up there on the moon.

[Javier Ropero]

You can see a full list of earthquakes in Myanmar and in Tohoku (Near East Coast of Honshu) doing a search in:

http://www.emsc-csem.org/Earthquake/?filter=yes

I gave the other site:
http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/map/
because it is easier to visualize the latest earthquakes.

Looking on the map in your link, there is no information of any earthquakes in Myanmar! So kind of hard to verify your claims.

[Javier Ropero]

Dear friends,

According to the following list of earthquakes, it seems that when there is an earthquake in Myanmar, there is a subsequent earthquake (one or two days later) in the Tohoku region of Japan. (Data were obtained from the EMSC data base by using as keywords “Near East Coast of Honshu” and Myanmar).

Year 2008
21 August (12:24), Mag. 6, Myanmar --> 22 August (10:59), Mag. 5.3, Tohoku.

Year 2009
3 September (19:51), Mag. 5.9, Myanmar --> 04 September (01:18), Mag.4.6, Tohoku.

Year 2010
13 March (11:50 UTC) Mag. 5.4 Myanmar --> 14 March (8:08 UTC), Mag. 6.5, Tohoku.

Year 2011
4 Feb (13:58 UTC) Mag 6.2 Myanmar --> 5 Feb (1:56 UTC) Mag. 5.3 Mag. Tohoku.
10 March (4:58 UTC) Mag. 5.5 Myanmar (Yunnan earthquake, near Myanmar border) --> 11 March (5:46 UTC) Mag. 9 Tohoku.
24 March (13:56 UTC) Mag. 6.9 Myanmar --> 25 March (11:36 UTC) Mag. 6.4, Tohoku.
20 Jun (16:55 UTC) Mag. 5.3 Myanmar --> 22 Jun (21:50 UTC) Mag. 6.7 Tohoku.
10 July (00:40 UTC) Mag. 4.9 Myanmar --> 10 July (00:57 UTC) , Mag. 7, Tohoku.
21 November (03:15), Mag. 5.9 -->23 November (19:24), Mag. 6.1, Tohoku.

Year 2012
1 January (02:34UTC) Mag. 4.6 Myanmar --> 1 January (08:31UTC), Mag. 4.6, Tohoku.
6 January (05:28UTC) Mag. 4.4 Myanmar --> 7 January (10:43 UTC), Mag. 4.7, Tohoku.
11 January (22:23) Mag. 4.5 Myanmar --> 12 January (03:20), Mag 5.7, Tohoku.

To confirm the hypothesis of Myanmar earthquakes preceding earthquakes in the Tohoku region, I searched the whole EMSC database (http://www.emsc-csem.org/Earthquake/?filter=yes), looking for earthquakes in Myanmar with 5.9 or higher magnitude. I found only 5 earthquakes. Interestingly, all these 5 earthquakes appear in the list above. This means that there is 100% in probability that a greater than 5.9 earthquake in Myanmar is followed by an earthquake of 4.6 of magnitude or greater in the Tohoku region (6.1 Magnitude in average).
According to this, the occurrence of an earthquake in Myanmar could serve for warning Japanese people of an imminent earthquake in the Tohoku area.

Javier Ropero

Looking on the map in your link, there is no information of any earthquakes in Myanmar! So kind of hard to verify your claims.

[Deathblob]

It takes a special kind of assburger to come up with that hypothesis.

Don't confuse correlation with causation.

[Javier Ropero]

Dear Sirs,

As I mentioned in the previous message, there is a high probability that an earthquake in Myanmar is followed by an earthquake in the Tohoku at most 24 hours later.
Now an earthquake in Myanmar has just happened (2012-03-29 00:23:21 UTC). Please, study this information carefully to draw your own conclusions.
In the case you agree with me, inform the authorities and earthquakes specialist to be aware and take their decissions.
According to my previsions a big (>6) earthquake in Tohoku will take place in a few hours, certainly in less than one day.
I know that nobody predicts earthquakes. Myanmar is the only case in which predictions could be right according to my studies. I am working and researching during more than three months in this issue and I have more data to support my claims that I will make public as soon as possible.

Best wishes,

Francisco Javier Ropero Peláez

Dear friends,

According to the following list of earthquakes, it seems that when there is an earthquake in Myanmar, there is a subsequent earthquake (one or two days later) in the Tohoku region of Japan. (Data were obtained from the EMSC data base by using as keywords “Near East Coast of Honshu” and Myanmar).

Year 2008
21 August (12:24), Mag. 6, Myanmar --> 22 August (10:59), Mag. 5.3, Tohoku.

Year 2009
3 September (19:51), Mag. 5.9, Myanmar --> 04 September (01:18), Mag.4.6, Tohoku.

Year 2010
13 March (11:50 UTC) Mag. 5.4 Myanmar --> 14 March (8:08 UTC), Mag. 6.5, Tohoku.

Year 2011
4 Feb (13:58 UTC) Mag 6.2 Myanmar --> 5 Feb (1:56 UTC) Mag. 5.3 Mag. Tohoku.
10 March (4:58 UTC) Mag. 5.5 Myanmar (Yunnan earthquake, near Myanmar border) --> 11 March (5:46 UTC) Mag. 9 Tohoku.
24 March (13:56 UTC) Mag. 6.9 Myanmar --> 25 March (11:36 UTC) Mag. 6.4, Tohoku.
20 Jun (16:55 UTC) Mag. 5.3 Myanmar --> 22 Jun (21:50 UTC) Mag. 6.7 Tohoku.
10 July (00:40 UTC) Mag. 4.9 Myanmar --> 10 July (00:57 UTC) , Mag. 7, Tohoku.
21 November (03:15), Mag. 5.9 -->23 November (19:24), Mag. 6.1, Tohoku.

Year 2012
1 January (02:34UTC) Mag. 4.6 Myanmar --> 1 January (08:31UTC), Mag. 4.6, Tohoku.
6 January (05:28UTC) Mag. 4.4 Myanmar --> 7 January (10:43 UTC), Mag. 4.7, Tohoku.
11 January (22:23) Mag. 4.5 Myanmar --> 12 January (03:20), Mag 5.7, Tohoku.

To confirm the hypothesis of Myanmar earthquakes preceding earthquakes in the Tohoku region, I searched the whole EMSC database (http://www.emsc-csem.org/Earthquake/?filter=yes), looking for earthquakes in Myanmar with 5.9 or higher magnitude. I found only 5 earthquakes. Interestingly, all these 5 earthquakes appear in the list above. This means that there is 100% in probability that a greater than 5.9 earthquake in Myanmar is followed by an earthquake of 4.6 of magnitude or greater in the Tohoku region (6.1 Magnitude in average).
According to this, the occurrence of an earthquake in Myanmar could serve for warning Japanese people of an imminent earthquake in the Tohoku area.

Javier Ropero

[Super Grover]

Well, I hope your wrong. I checked, though, there was an earthquake of 4.5 there. So will there be one here relatively soon? I am waiting.

[Ansony]

Well actually, on March 11, 2011 we had a customer come in from the US. He got here 2 hours before the earthquake hit. Freaked him right out. Well, he arrives here again today at 4pm. And so, I predict there will be a major earthquake at roughly 6pm tonight. I believe my prediction is a more valid predictor than Myanmar...

It would be some kinda freaky if there was one....

[Deathblob]

I did notice that I had poured myself another shot shortly before the most recent Myanmar earthquake. I think there is some sort of connection there: Allah is punishing the Myanmarians for my alcohol consumption!!!!!!!!11!111! I have more data to support my claims that I will make public as soon as possible.

[TJrandom]

I did notice that I had poured myself another shot shortly before the most recent Myanmar earthquake. I think there is some sort of connection there: Allah is punishing the Myanmarians for my alcohol consumption!!!!!!!!11!111! I have more data to support my claims that I will make public as soon as possible.

Oh drat - another variable to track... we now have ...

Myanmar earthquakes
shots of scotch consumed
sunrise
sunset
sun flares
the tides
bat migrations
whale sightings
nude swimmers
snow on Mt. Fuji
submarines
The peoples of Israel
My nocturnal visits to the can
Dogs barking
Dogs barking at the moon
And a few hundred more………

[Javier Ropero]

Thank you for your comments.
I was worried about my ideas could worsen the stressfull emotions that many foreigners feel in Japan about seismicity. Of course native people are used to earthquakes (at least for normal magnitude ones). I lived in Japan from 1995 to 1997 and the speculations about the Tokai earthquake made me very nervous. I think that my staying in Japan could be much more pleasant if I was not so worried about earthquakes. I love Japan and I would come back to Japan if I had the opportunity.
Today I´ve been worried the whole day about a Tohoku earthquake taking place after the one in Myanmar. It was a strange feeling: I did not want that a huge earthquake take place but at the same time I am quite sure about my research, and I wanted that at least something happened to demonstrate that my research (or crazy ideas if you want) was not completely absurd and without any foundations.
Fortunately when the seimic shocks were triggered in the Tohoku region (almost 24 hours later) seismicity was not so huge. Instead of that, it was widespread. You can see that, as I said, seismicity was exactly in the Tohoku area ( see http://www.jma.go.jp/en/quake/201203...91-300538.html) . More than that, it covers all Tohoku as you can see in the JMA site. Fortunately there was not a huge eartquake (hopefully it will not take place in the following hours). The highest magnitude was 4.7 in Miyagi Ken.
I was also thinking about wether giving this information coul be any helpful at all. Japan has their own ways to deal with earthquakes: seconds after the shock, trains stop, elevators open, and people are alerted. What would people do if earthquakes warnings were announced earlier. Maybe nothing different. Maybe some people could increase their stress and nothing more. I think that earlier announcements of earthquakes should be accompanied by a new philosophy of how to deal with the information. Maybe there could be safer rooms in office bouldings so that people could work in that rooms. Other people would say: instead of working stressffully waiting for the eartquake to come, I would prefer to walk, going to the gym, to the cinema or call my girlfriend to have a good time together...
Well, sorry again for contributing to increase your levels of stress. I am also informing responsible researchers on earthquakes in Japan. I´ll hope that in the future they (instead of me) could administrate and wisely use this new information in good ways to alert people in the case it is strictly necessary.

Best wishes,

Francisco Javier Ropero Pelaez

[well_bicyclically]

...if only there was a Francisco Javier Ropero Pelaez alert system on this board. think of the lives that would be saved...

[Javier Ropero]

Here is what you were waiting for:

http://www.jma.go.jp/en/quake/201203...91-301338.html

Thank you for your patience

Well, I hope your wrong. I checked, though, there was an earthquake of 4.5 there. So will there be one here relatively soon? I am waiting.

[Javier Ropero]

Look at this:

http://www.jma.go.jp/en/quake/201203...91-301338.html

When your dog barks let me know

Oh drat - another variable to track... we now have ...

Myanmar earthquakes
shots of scotch consumed
sunrise
sunset
sun flares
the tides
bat migrations
whale sightings
nude swimmers
snow on Mt. Fuji
submarines
The peoples of Israel
My nocturnal visits to the can
Dogs barking
Dogs barking at the moon
And a few hundred more………

[Ansony]

Look at this:

http://www.jma.go.jp/en/quake/201203...91-301338.html

When your dog barks let me know

Javier, it seems you are trying to do a good thing, but what you have to appreciate is the link you offered could be representative of any day over the past year here. It's going to be easy to create false correlations, because earthquakes that size are as common in Japan as drunken salarymen. And dogs don't bark here, they bow...wow...yikes that's a bad one!

[Javier Ropero]

My previous information was related to a 5.0 earthquake in Tohoku. Now a 6.0 earthquake happened in Tohoku and exactly at the same time an earthquake of 4.5 has just happened in Myanmar. Sorry if a 6.0 is like a hug for you but my dog has just barked: Wow, wow.....

See http://www.jma.go.jp/en/quake/201204...91-131910.html
and http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquak...0092k7#summary

Best wishes,

Javier

Javier, it seems you are trying to do a good thing, but what you have to appreciate is the link you offered could be representative of any day over the past year here. It's going to be easy to create false correlations, because earthquakes that size are as common in Japan as drunken salarymen. And dogs don't bark here, they bow...wow...yikes that's a bad one!

[Javier Ropero]

Dear friends,

Even knowing that anticipating a future earthquake is a risky task, I would like to assume that risk and say that an earthquake has just taken place in Myanmar at 2012-06-13 02:02:03 JST. According to my work based on Principal Components and Multivariate Granger causality there is a very high probability that an intense seismic energy will be released in the Tohoku area before 2012-06-15 02:02:03, at most two days afer the Myanmar earthquake. The most probable moment of this to happen is in the following hours.
Thank you again for your patience.

Francisco Javier Ropero Peláez

[TJrandom]

Dear friends,

Even knowing that anticipating a future earthquake is a risky task, I would like to assume that risk and say that an earthquake has just taken place in Myanmar at 2012-06-13 02:02:03 JST. According to my work based on Principal Components and Multivariate Granger causality there is a very high probability that an intense seismic energy will be released in the Tohoku area before 2012-06-15 02:02:03, at most two days afer the Myanmar earthquake. The most probable moment of this to happen is in the following hours.
Thank you again for your patience.

Francisco Javier Ropero Peláez

Woof woof............. the dogs be barking now....

[TJrandom]

Dear friends,

Even knowing that anticipating a future earthquake is a risky task, I would like to assume that risk and say that an earthquake has just taken place in Myanmar at 2012-06-13 02:02:03 JST. According to my work based on Principal Components and Multivariate Granger causality there is a very high probability that an intense seismic energy will be released in the Tohoku area before 2012-06-15 02:02:03, at most two days afer the Myanmar earthquake. The most probable moment of this to happen is in the following hours.
Thank you again for your patience.

Francisco Javier Ropero Peláez

Another day to go.. and the dogs are a napping - sound asleep, save for a snore on occasion.

[Vortex]

I am also informing responsible researchers on earthquakes in Japan.

Yeah, join the queue.

[skippyrobobuns]

er

IMPORTANT INFORMATION THAT CAN SAVE LIVES!!
All recent major earthquakes in the Tohoku region of Japan (the tsunami region) are preceded by a big earthquake (>5 Richter) in Myanmar country several hours before. ]

The fact is there are earthquakes all over the world and they happen a lot more often in Japan-like several big ones EVERY DAY. At this moment Fuji San is all a twitter.

Watch them in real time if you are so inclined and you might get a few seconds of warning, any corelationship with Miyanmar seismic activity is pure coincidence.

http://www.ustream.tv/channel/nied4maps-test

Here are the major ones (over 2.5 magnitude) that have happened all over the world in the last 7 days. See any pattern here?

http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/map/

[TJrandom]

Well - just 10 more minutes to go until the big one strikes - but the dogs are still sleeping. ... No, wait - I believe I hear one yapping now.....

[TJrandom]

Well, the time has come and gone - but I must admit - just a short time ago, I did feal some shaking. There I was, standing at the 'ol urinal, and toward the end - I know that I felt a distinct vertical movement followed by a wee bit of lateral... oh - wait a minute.. that might have been me hand. woof woof

[cucashopboy]

There was a large quake off the Tohoku coast this morning (magnitude 6.1)!

[wernst]

6.4 actually

[Shonai Ben]

....whatever it was my cell phone's early warning system woke us up around 5:30 am........i didn't know the phone had this until this morning.......and the quake didn't seem that large either........i probaly would have slept through it.......bloody phone.

[cucashopboy]

6.4 actually

6.1 according to the Japanese Meteorological Agency

http://www.jma.go.jp/en/quake/201206...91-180532.html

[Javier Ropero]

Nine hours ago a 5.5 earthquake has taken place in the Indian-Myanmar Border
http://www.emsc-csem.org/Earthquake/....php?id=278096

According to historical data the last time there was an earthquake in the same small area was July the first (2012).
(see http://www.emsc-csem.org/Earthquake/....php?id=276192 )
At that time the Myanmar earthquake was followed by high seismic activity in Tohoku area in the following two days with earthquakes between 4.7 and 5.1 magnitude.
(see http://www.emsc-csem.org/Earthquake/....php?id=276346 and http://www.emsc-csem.org/Earthquake/....php?id=276466 )

The previous time was in 2012-4-13 (http://www.emsc-csem.org/Earthquake/....php?id=262113)
and at the same time there was an earthquake in the Tohoku area of 5.8 magnitude ( see http://www.emsc-csem.org/Earthquake/....php?id=262109 )

Early this year 2012-1-11 there was another one in the Indian-Myanmar border ( http://www.emsc-csem.org/Earthquake/....php?id=250772 ) that was followed by a 5.7 earthquake in the Tohoku region (see http://www.emsc-csem.org/Earthquake/....php?id=250793)

As you see all earthquakes that took place this year in the Myanmar-India border were followed by a high magnitude earthquake in the Tohoku region. Now its up to you to have your own conclusions.

[TJrandom]

... Now its up to you to have your own conclusions.

Our own conclusions? Don’t you mean – our own earthquake?

You do know - that if you post these "predictions" frequently enough, that one day, it will happen? Why not broaden your precursor baseline - to include “any earthquake, anywhere in the world" - and that way, you may eventually become the hero, having become the first person to accurately predict earthquakes.

[Vortex]

As you see all earthquakes that took place this year in the Myanmar-India border were followed by a high magnitude earthquake in the Tohoku region. Now its up to you to have your own conclusions.

I conclude that why don't you give it a f-ucking rest.

[Super Grover]

One can only hope that the activity along the India-Myanmar border subsides!

[Javier Ropero]

Well, as predicted there was two earthquakes of 4.8 in Tohoku after the one in the Myanmar-India border quake
See Japan meteorological Agency: http://www.jma.go.jp/en/quake/201207...91-160431.html
The magnitude of these Tohoku earthquakes are compatible with the magnitude of the earthquakes previously described.

If you also wanted to be a "hero" here is the "trick". You can receive an e-mail from USGS every time an earthquake in Myanmar takes place by using.
https://sslearthquake.usgs.gov/ens/userhome_gmaps
In this case it is possible that there will be an earthquake in Tohoku within the following two days. Of course this is not completely certain.

If you want to have more certainty you can select the specific area in Myanmar region and see other past earthquakes in the same area using the tool "search earthquakes" in:
http://www.emsc-csem.org
Using the same tool you can confer how many of these past earthquakes in Myanmar were followed by an earthquake in Tohoku and see if the probability is high or low.
If the probability is high you can use this thread to give the information.
Of course, if you wish you also can continue looking at moving waters in pots or hearing dogs barking, as was suggested in previous posts.

Well, maybe you still don´t believe that Myanmar earthquakes are followed by Tohoku earthquakes. I suggest the following to believe.
Enter the USGS site http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/map/ and using the sliding buttons of the map select a big earthquake in the Tohoku area. Afterwards moving these buttons see the earthquakes that occur two days before in the world. Most of the times you will see an earthquake in Myanmar

Our own conclusions? Don’t you mean – our own earthquake?

You do know - that if you post these "predictions" frequently enough, that one day, it will happen? Why not broaden your precursor baseline - to include “any earthquake, anywhere in the world" - and that way, you may eventually become the hero, having become the first person to accurately predict earthquakes.

[cucashopboy]

Well, as predicted there was two earthquakes of 4.8 in Tohoku after the one in the Myanmar-India border quake
See Japan meteorological Agency: http://www.jma.go.jp/en/quake/201207...91-160431.html
The magnitude of these Tohoku earthquakes are compatible with the magnitude of the earthquakes previously described.

If you also wanted to be a "hero" here is the "trick". You can receive an e-mail from USGS every time an earthquake in Myanmar takes place by using.
https://sslearthquake.usgs.gov/ens/userhome_gmaps
In this case it is possible that there will be an earthquake in Tohoku within the following two days. Of course this is not completely certain.

If you want to have more certainty you can select the specific area in Myanmar region and see other past earthquakes in the same area using the tool "search earthquakes" in:
http://www.emsc-csem.org
Using the same tool you can confer how many of these past earthquakes in Myanmar were followed by an earthquake in Tohoku and see if the probability is high or low.
If the probability is high you can use this thread to give the information.
Of course, if you wish you also can continue looking at moving waters in pots or hearing dogs barking, as was suggested in previous posts.

Well, maybe you still don´t believe that Myanmar earthquakes are followed by Tohoku earthquakes. I suggest the following to believe.
Enter the USGS site http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/map/ and using the sliding buttons of the map select a big earthquake in the Tohoku area. Afterwards moving these buttons see the earthquakes that occur two days before in the world. Most of the times you will see an earthquake in Myanmar

Being a bit pedantic, that 4.8 earthquake would be a Kanto earthquake (epicentre Ibaraki prefecture) not a Tohoku earthquake.

I'm still very sceptical - the magnitude 9.0 earthquake last March was so huge that aftershocks are still continuing, and a quick look through past earthquakes on the same site shows a number of quakes with epicentres in the same region with magnitude 3 or 4, often with multiple quakes on the same day. This means that when my brother back in Britain farts, the chances of a force 4-5 magnitude quake in the Tohoku region in the next two days is not low.

Keep posting though - I find your posts interesting, even if I think you are barking up the wrong tree.

[TJrandom]

Well, as predicted ... Well, maybe you still don´t believe that Myanmar earthquakes are followed by Tohoku earthquakes. ...

Oh no - please don't get me wrong on this point - because I do believe this. It will always be true - for the next few years at least, and until the plates stabilize a bit more. Tohoku has these quakes quite routinely.

But it is also true that Tohoku quakes always follow the rising of the sun by not more than two days; the change in tides by not more than one day, etc. So predictive, and helpfully so – it is not.

Now if you could narrow down your predicted window to within a few hours – that would be useful – but you would also need to have very few false alarms. A few hours would permit people to evacuate – and they would do so if you did not have false alarms. Anything longer, and it becomes just like dogs barking – maybe even less useful.

At least a dog owner looks to see if there is a reason for the barking. While I don’t believe that anyone looks at your posts, or the referenced sites - as helpfully predictive of an earthquake in Tohoku.

[Javier Ropero]

Dear friends,

Recently I pointed out the relationship between earthquakes in Myanmar and Japan by saying that when a big earthquake takes place in Myanmar, another big earthquake takes place in the Tohoku region of Japan the day after. I even wrote a scientific article on this matter that was not accepted in the Special Issue on the "Great East Japan Earthquake Disaster" of the "Journal of Disaster Research" because they say I break conventional ideas on seismicity. (My article can be downloaded here: http://cmcc.ufabc.edu.br/index.php/r...-tecrep06.html )
Beside the article, I also calculated that the probability of this occurring by chance is equal to p=0.0015 by producing more than 1million sequences of aleatory earthquakes and testing if they behave as the sequence of Myanmar earthquakes.
Why I am saying all this now? Well, it is to not a matter of exhibitionism.
I am writting this because I am confident in saying that in the following 30 hours from now (Sunday, 29 July 2012, 14:10:08 , JST ) several earthquakes of magnitude higher than 5.0 will hit the Near East Coast of Honshu (Tohoku). The reason of this is that a big earthquake of 5.7 has hit Myanmar a few hours ago ( see http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquak...00biir#summary )
The last time that an eartquake like this hit this specific region of Myanmar was the 12th of March 2010 ( http://www.emsc-csem.org/Earthquake/....php?id=159779 )
and the following days there were two earthquakes of 5.5 and 6.6 in the Tohoku region. ( http://www.emsc-csem.org/Earthquake/....php?id=159911
http://www.emsc-csem.org/Earthquake/....php?id=160040 )
I know that the japanesse alert system (once an earthquake has just occurred) is excellent. So I expect that East Japan is still very safe. However I cannot congratulate in the same way the scientist that work in Japanesse Institutions studying earthquakes and costing a lot of money from japanesse contributors. If japanesse scientists say that earthquakes in Japan are not predictable, I say that the lasts ones are indeed predictable. If japanesse scientists do not look for the cause of this abnormal predictability of earthquakes, bigger and bigger earthquakes would occurr in Japan and in nearby countries costing thousands of lifes. It is the responsability of these scientists to look for the real cause of this earthquakes' abnormal predictability.
My work is so easy to reproduce and to evaluate that any child with a computer can do it.
Thank you very much for letting this blog openned for discussion on japanesse seismicity.

Best wishes,

Javier Ropero Peláez

[Javier Ropero]

Well there was a 5.4 one near the region of former ones.

http://www.emsc-csem.org/Earthquake/....php?id=279907

Dear friends,

Recently I pointed out the relationship between earthquakes in Myanmar and Japan by saying that when a big earthquake takes place in Myanmar, another big earthquake takes place in the Tohoku region of Japan the day after. I even wrote a scientific article on this matter that was not accepted in the Special Issue on the "Great East Japan Earthquake Disaster" of the "Journal of Disaster Research" because they say I break conventional ideas on seismicity. (My article can be downloaded here: http://cmcc.ufabc.edu.br/index.php/r...-tecrep06.html )
Beside the article, I also calculated that the probability of this occurring by chance is equal to p=0.0015 by producing more than 1million sequences of aleatory earthquakes and testing if they behave as the sequence of Myanmar earthquakes.
Why I am saying all this now? Well, it is to not a matter of exhibitionism.
I am writting this because I am confident in saying that in the following 30 hours from now (Sunday, 29 July 2012, 14:10:08 , JST ) several earthquakes of magnitude higher than 5.0 will hit the Near East Coast of Honshu (Tohoku). The reason of this is that a big earthquake of 5.7 has hit Myanmar a few hours ago ( see http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquak...00biir#summary )
The last time that an eartquake like this hit this specific region of Myanmar was the 12th of March 2010 ( http://www.emsc-csem.org/Earthquake/....php?id=159779 )
and the following days there were two earthquakes of 5.5 and 6.6 in the Tohoku region. ( http://www.emsc-csem.org/Earthquake/....php?id=159911
http://www.emsc-csem.org/Earthquake/....php?id=160040 )
I know that the japanesse alert system (once an earthquake has just occurred) is excellent. So I expect that East Japan is still very safe. However I cannot congratulate in the same way the scientist that work in Japanesse Institutions studying earthquakes and costing a lot of money from japanesse contributors. If japanesse scientists say that earthquakes in Japan are not predictable, I say that the lasts ones are indeed predictable. If japanesse scientists do not look for the cause of this abnormal predictability of earthquakes, bigger and bigger earthquakes would occurr in Japan and in nearby countries costing thousands of lifes. It is the responsability of these scientists to look for the real cause of this earthquakes' abnormal predictability.
My work is so easy to reproduce and to evaluate that any child with a computer can do it.
Thank you very much for letting this blog openned for discussion on japanesse seismicity.

Best wishes,

Javier Ropero Peláez

[Vortex]

I am writting this because I am confident in saying that in the following 30 hours from now (Sunday, 29 July 2012, 14:10:08 , JST ) several earthquakes of magnitude higher than 5.0....

30 hours later...

Well there was a 5.4 one near the region of former ones.

(Bold text by Vortex)

Are you aware of the difference between "one" and "several"?

What a brilliant prediction.