Buying real estate in Northern Japan

[1standarduser]

This is a serious question.

With all the people that have left the Fukushima area, has the land/housing pricing gone significantly down?
Would now be a good time to buy?
Any areas that you guys expect to go up in value in the future?

It seems that in a few years time the area will be back to normal, people will start moving back, and new construction may bring some what of a boom to the general area North of Tokyo.

[Kiboo]

May be if I get it for free ... LOL

[1standarduser]

May be if I get it for free ... LOL

There actually is free land in Japan today in the country side.
You can find free or very cheap land all over because of the declining population on the outskirts.
Specifically, Hokkaido had plots set up for free that I saw maybe 2 years back.

I would think it very likely the area around Fukushima will also have free land coming up here in the next year or 2.

[Tatsuo]

It seems that in a few years time the area will be back to normal, people will start moving back, and new construction may bring some what of a boom to the general area North of Tokyo.

The good old-fashioned contra-cyclical investor. I love them. "What goes down has do go up again".

Most of them die poor as they don't realize that there is no market-level that can't devalue (another) 90%.
In areas without near to certain future cash flow this is nothing more than a gamble with very bad odds.

[1standarduser]

Most of them die poor as they don't realize that there is no market-level that can't devalue (another) 90%.

I'm not sure how much a free (or nearly free) piece of land dropping 90% would affect the average buyer.
Could you tell me a little more?

[Tatsuo]

I'm not sure how much a free (or nearly free) piece of land dropping 90% would affect the average buyer.
Could you tell me a little more?

Could you tell where you can buy nearly free land (exactly) ?

[1standarduser]

Could you tell where you can buy nearly free land (exactly) ?

In Japan? Hokkaido.
In America? There are several states, notably Alaska.

I wouldn't call it 'buying' exactly, more like you get the land for free for turning it into a livable place.

Typed into google, and here is the very 1st thing to pop up:
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/06/03/wo....13410595.html

"SHIBETSU, Japan ― "If you build a home and move here, the land is yours free," read a billboard

[1standarduser]

Most of them die poor

I'm still not sure how the value of free land dropping can make them poor.
If you have a paid off home, the price another is willing to pay doesn't seem very relevant.

Most Japanese have their homes paid off upon their deaths, and want to pass it to their children.
Maybe you mean that their kids will be poor?

Should be noted that typically a Japanese house is built of a lower standard than in Western countries, for the reason that they are looked upon as a temporary place that will be leveled and rebuilt later in life or when it's passed on to their kids.
My in-laws said something like 'you build a house when you have a kid, then another when you retire'.

[Tatsuo]

I'm still not sure how the value of free land dropping can make them poor.

I have never said this. Please read very carefully, think very carefully and then answer.
I have no idea why (especially Americans) always have to change statements of other people to make them fit in their twisted world views.

You changed the subject from cheaper prices in Fukushima / the North of Tokyo and the question if it were time to buy there now to the subject of “free land”. This doesn’t automatically mean that all my previous made statements go with all of your new subjects. Even you should understand this.

If you have a paid off home, the price another is willing to pay doesn't seem very relevant.

If you are a retard it doesn’t. If you are a retard it also doesn’t matter if you lose 100 bucks on the train and forget about it because you get all confused after you see a girl with a short skirt at the station. If you are not stupid you realize that if you could buy the house you are living in with less money now then the money you have spent on the house for the last 30 years you made a loss and losing 100 bucks is losing 100 bucks no matter how you look at it. Ignoring facts doesn’t make it better.

Most Japanese have their homes paid off upon their deaths, and want to pass it to their children.
Maybe you mean that their kids will be poor?

What are you talking about? What has this to do with cheaper housing in Fukushima and your investment targets?

….free land…
In Japan? Hokkaido.
In America? There are several states, notably Alaska.

I wouldn't call it 'buying' exactly, more like you get the land for free for turning it into a livable place.

Great! So you are considering getting land that is worth nothing for nothing, pay money to build a house on it that will be worth nothing in an area that is only suitable for people with severe social phobia? You know: Dog crap is also free and so is getting raped by a big black dude in prison. May be, just may be there is a reason why it's free.

[ozzijp]

You know: Dog crap is also free. May be, just may be there is a reason why it's free.

Now, I am confused. Are you saying that even though I can correctly identify in each turd; (blindfolded if necessary, the senses of smell and taste really are the underrated senses in my opinion), the breed, general health and just occasionally, the time of dropping, my collection has no monetary value whatsoever?

[1standarduser]

If you are a retard it doesn’t. If you are a retard it also doesn’t matter if you lose 100 bucks on the train and forget about it because you get all confused after you see a girl with a short skirt at the station. If you are not stupid you realize that if you could buy the house you are living in with less money now then the money you have spent on the house for the last 30 years you made a loss and losing 100 bucks is losing 100 bucks no matter how you look at it. Ignoring facts doesn’t make it better.

This retard is willing to buy a home for $200,000 and then sell it for $199,999 some years later, after I've built equity.
For some reason this retard thinks that this 'loss' is better than paying a landlord rent the entire time.

Then again, I make my income with real estate.
Maybe in your country black people, Americans and retards are all unworthy (and/or are all rapists).

[Tatsuo]

This retard is willing to buy a home for $200,000 and then sell it for $199,999 some years later, after I've built equity.
For some reason this retard thinks that this 'loss' is better than paying a landlord rent the entire time.

Then again, I make my income with real estate.
Maybe in your country black people, Americans and retards are all unworthy (and/or are all rapists).

I'm really sorry: I couldn't understand your post. Do you want to tell me that you are this retard or that you can't calculate opportunity costs of an investment as a person that is working in real estate ? In your first sentence you use the words "retard" and "I" in a way it can only mean those two are the same person. Could you explain what you want to say ?

[ozzijp]

This retard is willing to buy a home for $200,000 and then sell it for $199,999 some years later

That's great. GP'ers are always willing to engage the disturbed. Admitting that you indeed do have a problem makes it just that much easier. Thanks.

[1standarduser]

I'm really sorry: I couldn't understand your post.... Could you explain what you want to say ?

I am saying you are an ignorant racist. I do not believe you lack the intellect to understand the post however.

People buy properties that they know will depreciate in value, and can still be making a better choice than renting.
If you own a home for 20 years and pay it off, then sell it for a dollar less than you bought it for, that's often a net profit compared to renting.

More extreme examples than just losing a dollar include
1) Buying a home on an Indian Reservation, where in X years the home is worth literally zero as it reverts back to the tribe.
This is often a spectacular deal. You can sometimes get million dollar homes with a view for half the price of renting or buying.
2) Buying a mobile home on rented land. This will assuredly depreciate in value. There are locations offered that when you add in financing can make it so this is less expensive and more desirable than renting.

[TJrandom]

...1) Buying a home on an Indian Reservation ...2) Buying a mobile home on rented land. ....

Those are fine examples - but just not very relevant to Japan.

A person may indeed get lucky - and sell for near what it took to build something. Maybe they found a sucker, or had a place where the buyer needed it to complete a bigger project, etc. - but those deals will not be predictable at the time you originally purchase. If they were - the existing realtors would get there way before you.

If you are buying for personal consumption and do not like to rent - fine. But don't bet your future financial health on the odd chance that you might make a profit in a falling market - both prices (current demand) and population (long term demand). Except for exceptional circumstances – your personal abode should be assumed to simply represent consumption.

[Tatsuo]

I am saying you are an ignorant racist. I do not believe you lack the intellect to understand the post however.

People buy properties that they know will depreciate in value, and can still be making a better choice than renting.
If you own a home for 20 years and pay it off, then sell it for a dollar less than you bought it for, that's often a net profit compared to renting.

More extreme examples than just losing a dollar include
1) Buying a home on an Indian Reservation, where in X years the home is worth literally zero as it reverts back to the tribe.
This is often a spectacular deal. You can sometimes get million dollar homes with a view for half the price of renting or buying.
2) Buying a mobile home on rented land. This will assuredly depreciate in value. There are locations offered that when you add in financing can make it so this is less expensive and more desirable than renting.

1) I'm not a racist.

2) Not understanding your post has nothing to do with my intellect but the fact that you were writing confusing and contradicting crap.

3) Using surreal examples about the market and impossible developments as an argument is just lame and not worth answering to.

4) Indian tribes ? Mobile home on rented land ? At the risk of repeating myself: "Ha ?"

[1standarduser]

Those are fine examples - but just not very relevant to Japan.

If you are buying for personal consumption and do not like to rent - fine. But don't bet your future financial health on the odd chance that you might make a profit in a falling market - both prices (current demand) and population (long term demand). Except for exceptional circumstances – your personal abode should be assumed to simply represent consumption.

They are just examples, and extreme ones at that.

Nobody is saying to bet your future financial health here.

I know people that have chosen to buy in Japan that realize the value of the land and home are likely to decline in value.
If your mortgage is lower than the cost of rent, and after the term of your loan, you own the property outright, then it should be fairly obvious that you made the right decision.

Think about this. No investor in Japan would own apartment buildings and rent them out if they thought their customers were getting the better part of the bargain.

Property values vary widely and can be going up in X city, while going down in the neighboring Y city.
Taking an educated guess in this industry and over-leveraging can make you rich... or make you lose your shirt.

[Bakameguro]

Are you planning to live in the property in the interim then? I'd be pretty astonished if property hadn't collapsed so if you're happy enough living in Fukashima then you're fine until you try and sell. If you're right and the economy picks up, and that is reflected in Fukashima and not just the larger cities, and the fallout from the pant is negligible, then this could make you some money.

Absolutely horrendous amounts of risk though. What would you do if there's no liquidity and you can't sell it?

[shonanfred]

...and the fallout from the pant is negligible..

The fallout from my pant is anything but negligible....
Fred

[1standarduser]

Absolutely horrendous amounts of risk though. What would you do if there's no liquidity and you can't sell it?

I actually will not live anywhere north of Tokyo (excluding Hokkaido) until I feel comfortable raising my children there.
At the moment, I don't trust the safety. However, I'm actually more worried about the food than the radiation in the air/land/water/etc.
I could probably be convinced that certain areas are much better off than others.

Japan has programs where underdeveloped regions get free property.
If that was the case, no problem.

But, if it was just a reduced price, plus I built a brand new home on it that I only lived in for a couple years, than I'd likely lose my shirt.
My guess is that the region will recover, but it's going to be a longer term kind of thing.

Japanese are weird in general about older houses in neighborhoods that are not 'walkable'.
I was once offered to buy a fairly decent 2 story, 3 bed home around 100sq meters for $40,000USD (4million yen) and might have been able to get it cheaper. This home was a 10 minute drive from anywhere, and would be a difficult, but manageable bike ride for those that don't mind a good workout every day.
Now, take that same home, put in a weeks labor to pretty it up and have it be a 10 minute walk from the station/town center and it would have been 10x the price.

[ttokyo]

This is a serious question.

With all the people that have left the Fukushima area, has the land/housing pricing gone significantly down?
Would now be a good time to buy?
Any areas that you guys expect to go up in value in the future?

It seems that in a few years time the area will be back to normal, people will start moving back, and new construction may bring some what of a boom to the general area North of Tokyo.

The market is split, it seems :

"In Miyagi, Fukushima and Iwate prefectures, which were hit hard by the disaster, prices of residential lots on high ground have soared, while prices in coastal areas dropped dramatically."

www.yomiuri.co.jp/dy/national/T120324002868.htm

[1standarduser]

www.yomiuri.co.jp/dy/national/T120324002868.htm

Dude, you are awesome.
Much appreciated.