Japan's decreasing population

[cucashopboy]

Japan's population fell by over 250,000 last year.

http://www.japantimes.co.jp/text/nn20120418a9.html

What I don't understand is that if so many baby boomers are retiring and there are relatively few young people around, why is the job market for graduates reported as being so bleak? Japan's economy is not doing well, but it's not doing any worse than the US or Europe.

Any explanations?

[TJrandom]

Japan's population fell by over 250,000 last year.

http://www.japantimes.co.jp/text/nn20120418a9.html

What I don't understand is that if so many baby boomers are retiring and there are relatively few young people around, why is the job market for graduates reported as being so bleak? Japan's economy is not doing well, but it's not doing any worse than the US or Europe.

Any explanations?

Globalization... all of those jobs that are not needed by the aging and controlling managers in companies - are being sent overseas whenever the nature of the job allows....

[Super Grover]

Japan's population fell by over 250,000 last year.

http://www.japantimes.co.jp/text/nn20120418a9.html

What I don't understand is that if so many baby boomers are retiring and there are relatively few young people around, why is the job market for graduates reported as being so bleak? Japan's economy is not doing well, but it's not doing any worse than the US or Europe.

Any explanations?

It is part way in a cycle. Now, companies are retooling, cutting the fat, letting attrition help them. Factory jobs, however are diappearing overseas. Gradually, there will be full employment again and later a shortage if immigration isn't changed. From my semi-inside track, I know that the well educated grads are doing all right (though there seems to be an excess of IT grads and not enough positions).

But look at the unemployment in the USA and Europe, it is far higher than here. So if you have been used to almost full employment, 7 or 8% seems pretty bad. Moreover, the number quality of well paying jobs available is decreasing here.

[rainbowtokyo]

I'm currently in Canton for a trade fair. I have noticed that there seems to be no shortage of highly qualified Japanese economic refugees in China. They seem to put up with the ever-present smog and the lower salaries. The ones I have met don't want to return home to Japan.

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/04/18/bu...-in-china.html

Japanese Engineers Find New Life in China
By REUTERS
Published: April 17, 2012
DONGGUAN, CHINA ― Their technical skills helped Japan’s corporate giants sweep all before them in the 1980s, and now thousands of aging Japanese engineers are finding a new lease on life in a booming China.

“My profession is going out of business in Japan,” said Masayuki Aida, a 59-year-old who made molds for a Tokyo-based company for 30 years but has spent several years in Dongguan, a manufacturing hub in the Pearl River Delta in southern China.

With the near-incessant noise of car horns and a pervasive smell of chemicals, the dusty streets of industrial Dongguan are a far cry from Tokyo or Osaka. Construction sites dot the city while beggars clutching tin cans approach cars at intersections.

For Mr. Aida and many like him nearing the national retirement age of 60, the choice was simple: Face a few years without an income as Japan raises the age at which employees get their pension, or work for companies in Hong Kong or mainland China.

“People aren’t making products in Japan anymore,” said Mr. Aida, who makes molds for products like toys, earphones and coffee machines. “I wanted to pass on to younger generations all the knowledge and technology about molds I had obtained.”

For Japan, marred by two decades of economic stagnation, the little-reported exodus of engineers means rival Chinese firms are getting an injection of the technology and skills behind “made in Japan” products.

Japanese government data show that 2,800 Japanese expatriates live in Dongguan, a city of more than eight million.

“From Japan’s perspective, emerging countries are getting a free ride of the benefits we nurtured. So yes, it is a problem,” said Yasushi Ishizuka, director of the intellectual property policy office at the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry.

Japan suffered its first technology brain drain about 20 years ago, when South Korean companies like Samsung Electronics and LG Electronics poached scores of frontline semiconductor and white goods engineers from big Japanese electronics firms.

Since then, South Korean electronics manufacturers have bounded into the global top ranks, helped along by that transfer of technical knowledge.

Japanese technology giants, meanwhile, have floundered.

Sony, Panasonic and Sharp ― Japan’s three main TV manufacturers ― are expected to have lost $21 billion between them in the fiscal year that ended March 31, partly because of Korean competition.

Many of the Japanese engineers finding a second life in China do not have the expertise in cutting-edge technology that would deal another crushing blow to Japanese manufacturers, analysts say, but the long-term impact could be severe because they will give Chinese manufacturers the skills to make high-quality goods efficiently.

China has pushed its own companies to innovate, but many experts cite an educational system that prizes rote learning as an obstacle. For many companies, buying talent is the quickest fix.

“Skills related to production, like making molds, are something that companies obtained after years of trial and error,” said Morinosuke Kawaguchi, associate director at the management consultant firm Arthur D. Little in Tokyo.

For example, the slightest tweak to a mold could lead to mass production of faulty items, said Mr. Kawaguchi, himself a former Hitachi engineer who used to make household appliances.

“This exodus of Japanese engineers will raise the quality of products made by Chinese companies and allow them to produce efficiently,” he added.

Mr. Aida said the skills of Chinese engineers had improved over the past decade.

“When I first came to China, a product was considered good as long as it didn’t fall apart,” said Mr. Aida. “They’ve caught up rapidly since then.”

China’s exports of higher-valued machinery and electronic products rose 9.1 percent in the first quarter from a year earlier, when they gained 7.6 percent, to $253 billion, according to trade data.

Stemming the outflow of engineers to Chinese manufacturers appears to be impossible.

Sany Heavy Industry, Geely Automobile Holdings and BYD said they had employed Japanese engineers to increase their technological know-how. They declined to comment further.

[Super Grover]

I'm currently in Canton for a trade fair. I have noticed that there seems to be no shortage of highly qualified Japanese economic refugees in China. They seem to put up with the ever-present smog and the lower salaries. The ones I have met don't want to return home to Japan.

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/04/18/bu...-in-china.html

Japanese Engineers Find New Life in China
By REUTERS
Published: April 17, 2012
DONGGUAN, CHINA ― Their technical skills helped Japan’s corporate giants sweep all before them in the 1980s, and now thousands of aging Japanese engineers are finding a new lease on life in a booming China.

“My profession is going out of business in Japan,” said Masayuki Aida, a 59-year-old who made molds for a Tokyo-based company for 30 years but has spent several years in Dongguan, a manufacturing hub in the Pearl River Delta in southern China.

With the near-incessant noise of car horns and a pervasive smell of chemicals, the dusty streets of industrial Dongguan are a far cry from Tokyo or Osaka. Construction sites dot the city while beggars clutching tin cans approach cars at intersections.

For Mr. Aida and many like him nearing the national retirement age of 60, the choice was simple: Face a few years without an income as Japan raises the age at which employees get their pension, or work for companies in Hong Kong or mainland China.

“People aren’t making products in Japan anymore,” said Mr. Aida, who makes molds for products like toys, earphones and coffee machines. “I wanted to pass on to younger generations all the knowledge and technology about molds I had obtained.”

For Japan, marred by two decades of economic stagnation, the little-reported exodus of engineers means rival Chinese firms are getting an injection of the technology and skills behind “made in Japan” products.

Japanese government data show that 2,800 Japanese expatriates live in Dongguan, a city of more than eight million.

“From Japan’s perspective, emerging countries are getting a free ride of the benefits we nurtured. So yes, it is a problem,” said Yasushi Ishizuka, director of the intellectual property policy office at the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry.

Japan suffered its first technology brain drain about 20 years ago, when South Korean companies like Samsung Electronics and LG Electronics poached scores of frontline semiconductor and white goods engineers from big Japanese electronics firms.

Since then, South Korean electronics manufacturers have bounded into the global top ranks, helped along by that transfer of technical knowledge.

Japanese technology giants, meanwhile, have floundered.

Sony, Panasonic and Sharp ― Japan’s three main TV manufacturers ― are expected to have lost $21 billion between them in the fiscal year that ended March 31, partly because of Korean competition.

Many of the Japanese engineers finding a second life in China do not have the expertise in cutting-edge technology that would deal another crushing blow to Japanese manufacturers, analysts say, but the long-term impact could be severe because they will give Chinese manufacturers the skills to make high-quality goods efficiently.

China has pushed its own companies to innovate, but many experts cite an educational system that prizes rote learning as an obstacle. For many companies, buying talent is the quickest fix.

“Skills related to production, like making molds, are something that companies obtained after years of trial and error,” said Morinosuke Kawaguchi, associate director at the management consultant firm Arthur D. Little in Tokyo.

For example, the slightest tweak to a mold could lead to mass production of faulty items, said Mr. Kawaguchi, himself a former Hitachi engineer who used to make household appliances.

“This exodus of Japanese engineers will raise the quality of products made by Chinese companies and allow them to produce efficiently,” he added.

Mr. Aida said the skills of Chinese engineers had improved over the past decade.

“When I first came to China, a product was considered good as long as it didn’t fall apart,” said Mr. Aida. “They’ve caught up rapidly since then.”

China’s exports of higher-valued machinery and electronic products rose 9.1 percent in the first quarter from a year earlier, when they gained 7.6 percent, to $253 billion, according to trade data.

Stemming the outflow of engineers to Chinese manufacturers appears to be impossible.

Sany Heavy Industry, Geely Automobile Holdings and BYD said they had employed Japanese engineers to increase their technological know-how. They declined to comment further.

Thanks for this post. I also know 2 or 3 older guys who receive retirement income and have gone over to China as consultants.
The last 2 lines of this article are crucial and worrisome. Geely is a HUGE company and if and when BYD really gets going with good cars for all, it could be game over. Scary stuff.

[rainbowtokyo]

Thanks for this post. I also know 2 or 3 older guys who receive retirement income and have gone over to China as consultants.
The last 2 lines of this article are crucial and worrisome. Geely is a HUGE company and if and when BYD really gets going with good cars for all, it could be game over. Scary stuff.

Car production in China has practically doubled since 2008. China is now unquestionably the world's largest auto manufacturer. One thing I noticed here is that most cars on the road are pretty new; there are hardly any old cars to be seen. At first I thought China had a vicious "shaken" in place, as is the case in Japan. Creative destruction (to paraphrase Shumpeter) creates jobs - many governments encourage the scrapping of cars after a few years because "its good for the economy." It took some time to realize that locally made cars, even those that are made at foreign-owned plants, are very badly engineered and practically fall apart within a short time. There is no need for 'shaken' in China; most cars here HAVE to be scrapped after a few years because they constantly break down. Shumpeter would roll in his grave if he could see the craziness of it all. I'm looking outside my hotel room window and visibility is very poor because of the smog. It's been this way for the past month that I have been here. I've seen blue sky just twice. Quality control and pollution are huge problems in China. Throwing things away is a way of life. I bought an amazing Chinese made cell-phone, with lots of bells and whistles. It lasted barely 10 hours before dying. This country badly needs Japanese engineers! Maybe they come here, as so many of them do, for the nightlife - it's pretty good.

[Super Grover]

Car production in China has practically doubled since 2008. China is now unquestionably the world's largest auto manufacturer. One thing I noticed here is that most cars on the road are pretty new; there are hardly any old cars to be seen. At first I thought China had a vicious "shaken" in place, as is the case in Japan. Creative destruction (to paraphrase Shumpeter) creates jobs - many governments encourage the scrapping of cars after a few years because "its good for the economy." It took some time to realize that locally made cars, even those that are made at foreign-owned plants, are very badly engineered and practically fall apart within a short time. There is no need for 'shaken' in China; most cars here HAVE to be scrapped after a few years because they constantly break down. Shumpeter would roll in his grave if he could see the craziness of it all. I'm looking outside my hotel room window and visibility is very poor because of the smog. It's been this way for the past month that I have been here. I've seen blue sky just twice. Quality control and pollution are huge problems in China. Throwing things away is a way of life. I bought an amazing Chinese made cell-phone, with lots of bells and whistles. It lasted barely 10 hours before dying. This country badly needs Japanese engineers! Maybe they come here, as so many of them do, for the nightlife - it's pretty good.

I have been to China at least 10 times. Pollution is awful, thus electric bikes everywhere. The ability to afford cars is fairly recent, so few old ones are on the road. The foreign cars are okay -- some. BUT, in China such a car costs big big bucks. I believe that China will continue to evolve -- quickly. We have toyed with the idea of living in China after our work here is finished, but the pollution is beyond bearing. If Geely and BYD improve as fast as, say, Hyundai, OUCH, we will be buying those cars. I have thought about investing in BYD, but it is still rather early.

I am not overly concerned about Japan's declining population. It'll be what it will be, but hardly a catastrophe. More urgent is the dark attitude of so many people. There isn't a lot of optimism here.

[rainbowtokyo]

I have been to China at least 10 times. .

You must like it! But for the pollution and the human rights situation, China is an excellent place.

The markets here are pretty Darwinian. Forget regulations, the corporate regulators here are more corrupt than the companies they are supposed to police. The same with the business press, not that I can read Chinese. As for accounting standards......don't ask! Large companies make a pretence of following GAAP. The reality is somewhat different.

Last year, I visited the Shenzhen stock exchange and spoke to one of their senior economists. I was chasing data on company insiders. He looked at me sheepishly and said "I know what you want. I know every other major exchange overseas provides this information. But here in China things work differently. "

As for timing: at the current time, if you look at the two main Chinese exchanges' marcap vs GDP ratios, things APPEAR to be as cheap as 2005. But this is China, its full of surprises. I've stopped looking at the local indexes, the components are chopped and changed regularly and its hard to make any sense of it all.

We have toyed with the idea of living in China after our work here is finished, but the pollution is beyond bearing. .

Do it for a year and se how you like it. I'm told places like Yunan are relatively unpolluted.

I have thought about investing investing but it is still rather early.

Automakers are never easy to understand. Maybe you can do a Peter Lynch. He got into Subaru when it listed in the US in the early 80s. I am told it went up 30 fold. He did equally well with Chrysler, although that play would have felt a lot riskier back then.

Do you follow the China listings in the USA? What a mess! Even the insiders don't seem to know what they are doing.

[ozzijp]

I am not overly concerned about Japan's declining population. It'll be what it will be, but hardly a catastrophe. More urgent is the dark attitude of so many people. There isn't a lot of optimism here.

I am very surprised you would say this. You don't think there might be a correlation between the two? I certainly do.

[ozzijp]

I am told it went up 30 fold.

Are you sure you didn't just read it? You aren't trying to two-up anyone here, are you?

[Call_It_Like_Eye_See_It]

Only 250,000?!? No wonder I still can't get a seat on the morning subway!

When will the first wave of baby boomers kick the bucket?

[cucashopboy]

Only 250,000?!? No wonder I still can't get a seat on the morning subway!

When will the first wave of baby boomers kick the bucket?

The population pyramid shows a bulge in the population of 60-64 year olds, so maybe another 20 years. The population in Tokyo grew by 0.2% last year, so the metropolises seem to be maintaining their populations for the moment, so no free seats for a while!

By the way, thanks everyone for the interesting and enlightening replies.

[Super Grover]

I am very surprised you would say this. You don't think there might be a correlation between the two? I certainly do.

And thus the value of open discussion. I think that we are in a down cycle (of course), but we will come out of it with enough jobs for young folks. I think Japanese are not cheery by nature (can I write that?? well I did!), but now they are particularly dark. I think due to the awful government, inevitable taxation, and THEIR core belief that things are just the way they are and can't be changed. I think pessimism is more a function of a belief that their lives won't get better -- referring to older people like myself -- more than any connection to a declining population. I realise this is simplistic, but I have more work to do today!

[cucashopboy]

And thus the value of open discussion. I think that we are in a down cycle (of course), but we will come out of it with enough jobs for young folks. I think Japanese are not cheery by nature (can I write that?? well I did!), but now they are particularly dark. I think due to the awful government, inevitable taxation, and THEIR core belief that things are just the way they are and can't be changed. I think pessimism is more a function of a belief that their lives won't get better -- referring to older people like myself -- more than any connection to a declining population. I realise this is simplistic, but I have more work to do today!

I think the media play a major part in this pessimism, if the yen is strong, it's a problem, Japanese companies can't compete. If the yen is weak, it's a problem, imports are expensive, whereas both are opportunities. The TV news seems to cover a huge number of human interest (tragedy) stories of families particularly hit by the tsunami or other random acts of destruction, with plenty of close-ups of crying and destruction, followed by sports players saying they will try their best and a bit of hanami or whatever the seasonal thing is to cheer people up at the end. The message is that as a Japanese person, you will suffer and you must try your best and endure. I'd be pessimistic too.

Rant over.

[Super Grover]

I think the media play a major part in this pessimism, if the yen is strong, it's a problem, Japanese companies can't compete. If the yen is weak, it's a problem, imports are expensive, whereas both are opportunities. The TV news seems to cover a huge number of human interest (tragedy) stories of families particularly hit by the tsunami or other random acts of destruction, with plenty of close-ups of crying and destruction, followed by sports players saying they will try their best and a bit of hanami or whatever the seasonal thing is to cheer people up at the end. The message is that as a Japanese person, you will suffer and you must try your best and endure. I'd be pessimistic too.

Rant over.

I see this daily in colleagues and a fair few students, but of course most students are okay (as they should be).
At our meetings, suffering and lack of ________ (insert as required on the day) is portrayed as the norm. There is a lot of what I view as dysfunction here. Anyway, that is not "news" at all, is it?

Definitely, the strong yen is a problem more than it is a boon (though I am enjoying it!).

[ozzijp]

I think due to the awful government, inevitable taxation, and THEIR core belief that things are just the way they are and can't be changed.

This government is no worse than any previous ones (I am assuming you mean this this particular band of Merry Men rather than the concept of governing here in general) and you should replace the word "inevitable" with "shockingly high future" but I will grant you the last point.

A little OT but still relevant, I have yet to hear a decent explanation for the current high yen. I have a conspiratory theory but divulging that could render readers to assume I have consumed more single malts than I actually have.

I think pessimism is more a function of a belief that their lives won't get better -- referring to older people like myself -- more than any connection to a declining population.

Pessimism is certainly warranted by those wanting Japan to survive in any way remotely similar to the way it is now. In my experience, J-folk are singularly, unknowingly clever but collectively, unconsciously stupid (see sheep for details).

[cucashopboy]

A little OT but still relevant, I have yet to hear a decent explanation for the current high yen. I have a conspiratory theory but divulging that could render readers to assume I have consumed more single malts than I actually have.

I'd love to hear it! I'd go with the mainstream view that in the short term the yen is the best of a bad bunch. I've heard the same thing said about the British pound - the economy is not in good shape but at least it's not the Euro.

[twelvedown]

Wow! 259,000.
That's a lot!
I remember about 6 or 7 years ago when the first decline was registered... It was about 50,000... Now all of a sudden the figure is falling off a cliff....
Japan is overpopulated though so...
If only the rest of the world would join in...

[Super Grover]

This government is no worse than any previous ones (I am assuming you mean this this particular band of Merry Men rather than the concept of governing here in general) and you should replace the word "inevitable" with "shockingly high future" but I will grant you the last point.

A little OT but still relevant, I have yet to hear a decent explanation for the current high yen. I have a conspiratory theory but divulging that could render readers to assume I have consumed more single malts than I actually have.

Pessimism is certainly warranted by those wanting Japan to survive in any way remotely similar to the way it is now. In my experience, J-folk are singularly, unknowingly clever but collectively, unconsciously stupid (see sheep for details).

The strength of the yen: truly, this beats me. Have people actually bought so much yen as a hedge against the Euro or the USD? Is there some confidence in the yen? If so, I find that stunning. Some years down the road, maybe, but surely not now. BTW, I read this morning that some analysts expect the Nikkei to rise dramatically in 2012. I find that to be an equally weird opinion. The CAD or the AUD ought to be valued higher than the yen, but I guess investors don't seek refuge in these currencies. Is that the answer?

This government is indeed no worse than previous ones. If anything, a bit better (minutely). But it is still awful. I think when we consider the DECADES of bad governing, people of a certain age may well have just given up, believing that things will never change. I am firmly in this camp, especially knowing month after month how likely it is that 20% at least of private universities will fail. Meanwhile, in my world we simply opt for more open campus events and now new forms of FD, which will do nothing except keep us at our keyboards.

I hope we can collect our retirement bonuses asap and leave. I hope there isn't some kind of leaving tax.

[edin日本]

The strength of the yen: truly, this beats me. Have people actually bought so much yen as a hedge against the Euro or the USD? Is there some confidence in the yen? If so, I find that stunning. Some years down the road, maybe, but surely not now. BTW, I read this morning that some analysts expect the Nikkei to rise dramatically in 2012. I find that to be an equally weird opinion. The CAD or the AUD ought to be valued higher than the yen, but I guess investors don't seek refuge in these currencies. Is that the answer?

People will always invest in one of the major trading currencies as a hedge. With all the bad news about the Euro and the US dollar, the Yen possibly looks to be a safer bet. And as far as the lesser currencies are concerned remember how the Americans used to refer to the Canadian dollar? A lot of international financial institutions still think that way regarding the small fry.

This government is indeed no worse than previous ones. If anything, a bit better (minutely). But it is still awful. I think when we consider the DECADES of bad governing, people of a certain age may well have just given up, believing that things will never change. I am firmly in this camp, especially knowing month after month how likely it is that 20% at least of private universities will fail. Meanwhile, in my world we simply opt for more open campus events and now new forms of FD, which will do nothing except keep us at our keyboards.

Considering that the LDP had decades in which to perfect their ability to scam, skim, bamboozle and hoodwink the public the new party in power are downright amateurs. So, it goes without saying that they get caught with their hands in the till or making a major fauxpas.

As regards your uni, from reading between the lines I believe that you believe that the senior faculty of your uni believes they will be one of the first private institutions to bite the dust. That's an awful lot of pessimistic thinking going on there. I suggest you take what money you have available now and get out of dodge.

I hope we can collect our retirement bonuses asap and leave. I hope there isn't some kind of leaving tax.

Thank you! Now you're giving the FSA ideas on how to stick it to us?

[Super Grover]

People will always invest in one of the major trading currencies as a hedge. With all the bad news about the Euro and the US dollar, the Yen possibly looks to be a safer bet. And as far as the lesser currencies are concerned remember how the Americans used to refer to the Canadian dollar? A lot of international financial institutions still think that way regarding the small fry.



Considering that the LDP had decades in which to perfect their ability to scam, skim, bamboozle and hoodwink the public the new party in power are downright amateurs. So, it goes without saying that they get caught with their hands in the till or making a major fauxpas.

As regards your uni, from reading between the lines I believe that you believe that the senior faculty of your uni believes they will be one of the first private institutions to bite the dust. That's an awful lot of pessimistic thinking going on there. I suggest you take what money you have available now and get out of dodge.



Thank you! Now you're giving the FSA ideas on how to stick it to us?

The first: Don't read quite that much into it. We are certainly between 5 and 10 years away from going under. I believe that we need to be taking bolder moves beyond Open Campus events and FD. I feel that we need to be almost out there, literally in the streets, appealing to our market. We can't meet and greet from behind a desk. I do want to get out of Dodge, but I do not know what's next for me.

You know that Canada has a leaving tax? It's true. If you indicate that you intend to permanently retire to Mexico/Hawaii/Singapore/Florida, the government assesses you with a leaving tax! Frigging OUTRAGEOUS! But from the govt. perspective, the money that you would be entitled to from --------YOURSELF is not actually yours! The tax dept. anticipates that your spending will generate revenue for the country. So if you choose to leave, they say, "Give us what should have been our cut upfront." Never say your leavin'. Always come back within the limit.
So I hope Japan does not have this.

As asides, the comments by Prof Koide in another thread are cause for concern. Uranium stocks are going to be rising soon.

[edin日本]

The first: Don't read quite that much into it. We are certainly between 5 and 10 years away from going under. I believe that we need to be taking bolder moves beyond Open Campus events and FD. I feel that we need to be almost out there, literally in the streets, appealing to our market. We can't meet and greet from behind a desk. I do want to get out of Dodge, but I do not know what's next for me.

Do what my parents did and get a timeshare in Costa Rica http://www.retireincostarica.net/

You know that Canada has a leaving tax? It's true. If you indicate that you intend to permanently retire to Mexico/Hawaii/Singapore/Florida, the government assesses you with a leaving tax! Frigging OUTRAGEOUS! But from the govt. perspective, the money that you would be entitled to from --------YOURSELF is not actually yours! The tax dept. anticipates that your spending will generate revenue for the country. So if you choose to leave, they say, "Give us what should have been our cut upfront." Never say your leavin'. Always come back within the limit.
So I hope Japan does not have this.

You better start figuring out how to beat it then because they'll be thinking about how to do it.

As asides, the comments by Prof Koide in another thread are cause for concern. Uranium stocks are going to be rising soon.

Which comments?

[chiba]

Japan is doomed

What did we hear this week? That Samsung is now the number one phone maker in the world. Why couldn't that have been Sony? Japanese companies have had a massive head start on Korean one's ad still failed. Soon China will catch up and then Japan Inc will be finished.

It was fine when the Japs were building cars millions or cars, hifis, tvs, walkmans, watches, microwaves and exporting them. You need a big workforce, hence population growth. Who in the world wants to buy a Japanese smart phone? or a Japanese car? They're not leading the pack anymore and their produce is expensive. It's hihly unlikely this will change. When Japan was at it's hight it didn't have to compete with Korea, Taiwan and China. Now they have to compete with the whole of Asia.

Compare Japanese graduates with Chinese or Indian, can they speak English? It limits what they can do in an international workplace.

[chiba]

I'll most likely get flamed, but I think Japan is not a developed country, not properly.

[edin日本]

I have been to China at least 10 times. Pollution is awful, thus electric bikes everywhere. The ability to afford cars is fairly recent, so few old ones are on the road. The foreign cars are okay -- some. BUT, in China such a car costs big big bucks. I believe that China will continue to evolve -- quickly. We have toyed with the idea of living in China after our work here is finished, but the pollution is beyond bearing. If Geely and BYD improve as fast as, say, Hyundai, OUCH, we will be buying those cars. I have thought about investing in BYD, but it is still rather early.

I am not overly concerned about Japan's declining population. It'll be what it will be, but hardly a catastrophe. More urgent is the dark attitude of so many people. There isn't a lot of optimism here.

You should talk to my cousin, he's a contractor at a Canadian built and designed nuclear power plant in China. This will be his last overseas posting and then he'll take his Chinese wife and kids and go back home.

[paradoxbox]

260,000 eh. sweet. less irritating oyajis to bother me. really hate old nasty j-dudes.

japan's future manufacturing industry's fate is almost already sealed. companies have been shipping out their manufacturing to indonesia, vietnam, etc. for the last few years. japan will become like the USA has become - no manufacturing and a completely worthless currency.

the current generation of young people are totally useless and ineffective on a global scale, they don't understand anything about innovation or ambition, but the next generation of young people will likely be much stronger so hopefully japan will bounce back after the current generation's time is up.

[well_bicyclically]

Japan's population fell by over 250,000 last year.

http://www.japantimes.co.jp/text/nn20120418a9.html

What I don't understand is that if so many baby boomers are retiring and there are relatively few young people around, why is the job market for graduates reported as being so bleak? Japan's economy is not doing well, but it's not doing any worse than the US or Europe.

Any explanations?

Nearly all of my students' co-workers who are age 60 and "retire", simply show up for work the very next day and sit at the same desk, and continue to do the same job as a contracted employee. No new jobs are being created. Companies adjust new hirees in these difficult times. One particular company that I deal with reports that of their 25 new hirees this April, 4 speak three languages, the majority speak 2 languages. Half have Master's degrees as they chose to stay in school rather than face the daunting task of job hunting two years ago. The company was able to pick up this uniquely educated group due to the fact that other companies throughout the nation are reducing the number of new hirees.

With the out-sourcing/off-shoring of jobs in Japan, new hirees are not needed.... at least not in the numbers as seen in other years. All those foreign students who were brought in to bolster university enrollments are now graduating and sticking around taking jobs that were filled by J-graduates.